First off, this blog post, the thesis of which I recently discussed with Ben, has got more postulation, hypothesis, and assumption than the google chat I had with my co-worker yesterday. But it is a theory of sorts, or an observation, so on with it:
Let's look at one player:
Shawn Green. I'd say that he defied expectation when, as a generally skinny dude, he hit 192 homers between 1998 and 2002. And here's the postulation part, and I could be way off: Shawn Green didn't take steroids. I'm not the first to posit this
idea. Throughout his homer-heavy years, he remained slim and trim to the eye, without exhibiting Luis Gonzalez's
massive biceps. This could be wrong, who knows, but for the sake of argument let's say that he didn't
juice.
Given that, what I want to look at is Shawn Green's career arc. Between the ages of 25 and 29 he was a monster, putting up big homer and RBI numbers (between 24 99 and 49, 123), stealing bases, getting his walks on. A fantastic all-around player, and one of the best in the game. Sky was the limit, and he was making a lot of money.
Then, 2003 saw a drop off in power numbers, down to 19 HR 85 RBI. He had shoulder injury issues, which, rather than being incidental, actually enforce my point, which I will get to. But he had problems, and his numbers dropped, and he hasn't again regained the level of dominance that everybody had become quite accustomed to.
Here's the crux: Shawn Green entered, in 2003, the stage of his career in which he was no longer in his mid-to-late twenties. He turned thirty in 2003. Therefore, his career has been totally and completely normal.
The reason I use Green as an example is because I, as a general interest fan, felt and feel some lingering disappointment at his recent "failings." Wha happened? I ask myself. Something didn't seem right, that a guy could plummet from superstardom to the middle of the pack fairly quickly. And then, recently, it dawned on me: SHAWN GREEN'S CAREER HAS BEEN PERFECTLY NORMAL, EXCEPT FOR THE FACT THAT WE HAVE ALL BEEN BRAINWASHED BY THE STEROID GENERATION.
In days of yore, it was expected that a player's skills decline with age. Not so for us, the web-surfers and MLBTV watchers. To us, the normal career arc for an above average player includes a stint in the mid-30s as a horse, cashing in on the big contract he signed five years ago, and resigning for more big bucks. Keeping on plugging, doing the same things he did when he was 27, the so-called prime of the career.
A few examples: the aforementioned
Luis Gonzalez, who had his best year at 33,
Jeff Kent, who though he doesn't strike me as a 'roider, was
much better at 37 than at 27,
Jim Edmonds, his near-best at 34,
Gary Sheffield,
Larry Walker,
Manny, etc. etc. The best players of our era are better for longer than most of the top-tier players from other eras.
Duke Snider was done being elite when he was 32, to use one example.
We are shocked now when a great athlete follows the most basic of routes as a player. It seems strange, and a little tragic, that he would be able to carry through to age 40, mashing and selling his services to the next bidder. Strange times, we are in, says Yoda, and I feel in my bones that we are entering a new era in which the career curve will normalize again, and that a 37-year-old slugger will once again emerge as extraordinary, and worthy of the Hall of Fame.
Labels: Baseball
Once again Lance Berkman enters my brain and voices my thoughts exactly, on the Roger Clemens Yanks' signing:
